I. Policy Anchoring: The Dual-Carbon Goals Drive a Comprehensive Acceleration of Green Building Development

Green building has become a key driver for the construction industry in implementing the “dual-carbon” strategy, and national and local policies are working in synergy to promote its development.

At the national level, the “14th Five-Year Plan for Energy Conservation in Buildings and Green Building Development” proposes that by 2025, newly constructed urban buildings will fully comply with green building standards, and the proportion of star-rated green buildings will exceed 30%. The “General Code for Energy Conservation in Buildings and Utilization of Renewable Energy” mandates that the average energy-saving rate for new buildings be raised to 72%, with a target of 75% in extremely cold regions.

Local Implementation: Beijing has introduced a dual mandatory standard of “Green Building + Prefabrication,” requiring all newly built residential buildings to meet at least the two-star green building rating starting in 2024. In Zhejiang, projects achieving a three-star green building rating are eligible for financial subsidies ranging from 30 to 50 yuan per square meter; by 2023, the proportion of green buildings in the province had already reached 96.8%. In Jiangsu, Sichuan, and other regions, green building requirements have been incorporated into land-use auction conditions, thereby compelling project developers to comply with these standards.

II. Market Expansion: A Leap in Scale—From Policy-Driven to Market-Accepted Growth

Policy benefits and the upgrading of consumer demand are jointly driving the continued expansion of the green building market.

Scale Data: According to statistics from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, in 2023, the area of newly built green buildings nationwide reached 3.76 billion square meters, accounting for over 90% of newly built urban buildings. The market size has surpassed 2.5 trillion yuan; it is projected to reach 3.8 trillion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 18%.

Industrial chain layout:

Upstream: Companies such as Oriental Rainbow (green building materials) and LONGi Green Energy (photovoltaic modules) are ensuring the supply of core materials, with annual capacity growth of 35% for building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) components.

Midstream: Enterprises such as China Construction and Shanghai Construction Engineering are leading project construction; the cumulative completed area of green building projects by China Construction Science & Industry Corporation has exceeded 80 million square meters.

Downstream: Property developers such as Greentown and Longhu are accelerating their green development strategies. In 2024, over 85% of Greentown’s construction projects will be green buildings, and Longhu’s “Green Residential Communities” series achieves an average annual energy savings of 1,200 kilowatt-hours per household.

III. Core Values: Dual Empowerment—Energy Conservation, Carbon Reduction, and Quality Enhancement

Green buildings achieve breakthroughs in multiple values through technological integration:

1. Low-carbon emission reduction: By adopting technologies such as thermal insulation materials and renewable energy utilization, the energy consumption per unit area of newly built green buildings is reduced by more than 65% compared to conventional buildings. For three-star-rated projects, carbon emission reductions can reach up to 40%, equivalent to a reduction of approximately 80 tons of carbon emissions per 10,000 square meters annually.

2. Upgraded Livability: Through solutions such as natural ventilation design, low-formaldehyde building materials, and noise control, the indoor air quality compliance rate has been increased to 98%, and the comfort score is 30% higher than that of conventional buildings, perfectly aligning with consumers’ demand for “healthy living.”

3. Long-term benefits: Although initial construction costs increase by 5% to 10%, thanks to energy savings, reduced consumption, and lower operation and maintenance costs, the incremental costs can be recouped within 7 to 10 years for typical residential buildings and only 5 to 8 years for commercial buildings. In some cities, green building projects in existing homes can command a premium of 15% to 20%.

IV. Development Bottlenecks: A Triple Test of Technology, Standards, and the Market

The large-scale promotion of green buildings still faces real-world challenges:

Insufficient technological adaptability: Some low-carbon technologies (such as ground-source heat pumps) are constrained by geological conditions. The adoption rate of BIM technology throughout the entire lifecycle of green buildings is only 45%, and the level of digital collaboration still needs to be improved.

The standard system remains to be improved: Green building material certification standards vary across different regions, and there is a lack of unified specifications for testing energy-saving performance, leading to the phenomenon of “pseudo-green” projects in some cases.

Market Cognitive Bias: Small- and medium-sized property developers still harbor concerns about the incremental costs of green buildings, and consumer awareness of green buildings in third- and fourth-tier cities remains below 30%. The market’s intrinsic driving force remains to be fully activated.

V. Future Trends: Deep Integration of Digitalization, Integration, and Marketization

Green buildings will evolve toward higher quality and broader applications:

1. Digital Empowerment: AI + BIM technologies enable digital management across the entire lifecycle of green building design, construction, and operation & maintenance, with energy consumption monitoring accuracy improved to over 90%.

2. Integrated Development: Green buildings will be deeply integrated with prefabricated and smart construction technologies. The proportion of “prefabricated + green” composite projects will rise from 28% in 2023 to 50% by 2025.

3. Deepening Marketization: The carbon trading market is linked to green building initiatives, enabling green building projects to earn additional revenue through the trading of carbon emission reductions. Meanwhile, green finance policies are being strengthened, with the central bank providing special re-lending support for green building projects, thereby reducing corporate financing costs.

Wang Youwei, Director of the Green Building and Energy Conservation Professional Committee of the China Urban Science Research Association, pointed out that green buildings are not only the transformative direction for the construction industry but also a crucial platform for high-quality development in both urban and rural areas. The large-scale development of green buildings will provide critical support for achieving the “dual carbon” goals and will drive the construction industry to shift from “high energy consumption and high emissions” toward “low energy consumption, low emissions, and high quality.”